Republicans introduced two immigrant-bashing bills in the House this week.  One would change the intent of the 14^thAmendment and the other would make it difficult for undocumented residents to get lower “in-state” college tuition .  These two ill-timed and seemingly spiteful bills may insure that the Democrats maintain control of the House of Representatives in the November election.

Why will these bills help Democrats keep control of the House?  Remember in 2005 when the house passed HR 4437.  Anger over that bill motivated millions of Hispanics to go to the streets in the spring of 2006.  To vote in unprecedented numbers in November 2006 and vote again for President Obama in 2008.  According to Julia Preston in the New York Times the Hispanic vote tipped the scale toward Obama in Florida, Colorado and Nevada and gave him his electoral college victory.

One of the reasons that Hispanics voted in large numbers for President Obama was that candidate Obama said that "a system that allows undocumented immigrants who are in good standing to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for the opportunity to become citizens."  Because of the economic crisis and the fight over healthcare reform no progress has been made toward that goal.  This lack of progress on their key issue has disappointed Hispanic voters. 

If the Republicans had stayed quiet in all likelihood the Hispanic vote would have stayed home in this falls elections.  But these bills could be a red flag as large as HR 4437 for Democrats to wave in front of Hispanic voters to get them to the streets and to the polls.  It will take careful management by the Democratic leadership to keep from overplaying the hand and alienating their centrist supporters.  It seems clear however that Republicans by introducing these two pieces of legislation have given the Democrats a tool that they can use to active the Hispanic vote and dramatically cut their losses in the Congressional elections.

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What are the Republicans thinking? Are there any strategists among their ranks? I bet some republicans think they can carry the day, at least election wise, using waged issues such as immigration, accusing the president of socialism, etc. I am concerned they continue to offer solutions that destroy families (raids, deportations, jails, take away citizenship rights, and so on). Republicans need to understand that offering these type of bills just create problems and no real solutions. Undocumented migrations are rooted in powerful push and pull factors, for example, NAFTA created the conditions to a US market driven economy to expand into Mexico; in turn, campesinos from Mexico were displaced and began to come here, many without legal documents, to look for work. And we as a country were ready to employ them as cheap labor, because we want things cheap. So, until this last situation improves, no bill that seek to take away access to higher education or citizenship birth rights will do any good to no one.

Mayron , February 17, 2010

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